© TiCCA4DANU
As part of its mission to support transformative climate adaptation across the Danube Region, TiCCA4DANU has released a new interim report on Burgas District, prepared ahead of our upcoming regional stakeholder workshop in Burgas on 23 April 2026. The transdisciplinary report brings together climate risk analyses and stakeholder insights to better understand how climate change is already affecting the region, and what is needed to strengthen adaptation in an inclusive, coordinated and place-based way.
As Bulgaria’s fourth-largest region, Burgas benefits from strong economic sectors, including tourism, trade, transport, real estate and manufacturing, while at the same time facing increasing damages from climate change and broader societal challenges. An ageing population persisting economic inequalities, uneven municipal capacities, and pressure from development in climate-sensitive coastal areas contribute to increasing the region’s exposure to climate impacts.
Climate risk analysis
A major focus of the report is the assessment of three climate risks: fluvial flooding, wildfire and extreme heat. In the case of flooding, the analysis estimates that population exposure in Burgas District rises from around 2,990 people in a 1-in-10-year flood event to around 4,285 people in a 1-in-500-year event. Expected annual damage to critical infrastructure is estimated at €3.9 million, with the water supply system identified as the most exposed subsystem. The report also points to broader economic consequences, showing that major floods are associated with reduced GDP per capita growth and higher inequality.
Wildfire risk is also projected to intensify. According to the report, Burgas District, with its 13 Municipalities, is already experiencing substantial exposure to fire weather conditions, and under all future scenarios the population is projected to face more than 90 days per year of moderate fire danger. Municipalities such as Kameno and Aitos remain among the most exposed areas, while Sredets emerges as a potential hotspot for very high danger in future scenarios. The analysis further suggests that wildfire impacts can be highly concentrated in a small number of extreme years, with estimated economic losses of €25-€42 million under conservative assumptions.
The report also documents a long-term intensification of extreme heat in Burgas District. Very hot days and tropical nights have increased significantly over recent decades, pointing to a structural shift in local climate conditions. Under current conditions, the majority of the population in Burgas Province is exposed to more than 30 tropical nights per year on average, with the highest levels of exposure occurring in coastal municipalities such as Burgas Municipality. In terms of affected economic sectors, the most consistent and policy-relevant finding concerns the construction sector, where extreme heat is associated with a statistically significant decline in firm activity.
Institutional and governance landscape
Beyond physical risks, the interim report takes a closer look at the institutional and governance landscape for climate adaptation in Burgas District. Interviews with key stakeholders underline the central role of Burgas Municipality in leading adaptation efforts, but also reveal recurring challenges such as fragmented responsibilities, limited resources, and dependence on external or national-level funding. At the same time, civil society organisations and NGOs are shown to play an increasingly important role, particularly in connecting adaptation efforts with local communities and raising awareness on the ground.
Using the Adaptation Justice Index, the analysis finds that both Burgas Municipality’s Sustainable Energy and Climate Action Plan (SECAP) and Bulgaria’s national climate adaptation strategy still leave significant room for improvement across recognitional, distributive, procedural and restorative justice dimensions. The report notes that while risks and measures are often identified, less clarity exists around who benefits, how costs and risks are distributed, and how communities can meaningfully shape adaptation priorities over time. Stakeholder interviews also point to practical barriers including low public trust, weak community institutions, and disparities between rural and urban areas in access to capacity, services and financing. These findings connect to the next part of the report dealing with barriers to climate change adaptation. Among the most significant are public mistrust of institutions, climate scepticism, low risk perception, siloed collaboration across sectors and governance.
The way ahead
Looking ahead, the Burgas interim report does not stop at diagnosis. It also begins to outline adaptation pathways tailored to the district’s main hazards. These are grouped into structural, institutional, behavioural and nature-based measures and will be further refined together with local stakeholders based on feasibility, effectiveness, co-benefits, costs, timelines, justice considerations and risks of maladaptation. In this way, the report serves as both an evidence base and a starting point for collaborative discussion during TiCCA4DANU’s Burgas District Open Discovery Workshop Process (ODP).
By combining climate risk analysis with governance, justice and stakeholder perspectives, the interim report offers an important step toward more integrated and transformative adaptation in Burgas District. It reflects the broader TiCCA4DANU approach: understanding not only what risks exist, but also who is affected, who can act, and what conditions are needed to turn adaptation ambitions into meaningful change on the ground.
👉🏻 Read the whole report: https://ticca4danu.eu/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/TiCCA4DANU-Workshop-Input-Burgas.pdf
